Fliff, Onyx Odds Ponder Prediction Markets Amid Sweepstakes Pressure

Two familiar sweepstakes-style sports prediction brands are taking early steps toward something much closer to traditional, federally overseen trading — even though nothing changes for players today.

Fliff (a free-to-play social sports gaming app that uses virtual currencies and sweepstakes mechanics for eligible users to redeem prizes for cash) and Onyx Odds (which accepts sports predictions via virtual currencies) both registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) on August 12. Their applications are pending for registration as Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs), NFA members, and swap firms.

These filings don’t let either company immediately run a prediction market. Instead, they signal possible interest in the fast-growing event-contract sector — the world of “prediction markets” that can sit inside federally regulated derivatives trading.

An FCM is a federally regulated intermediary that can accept customer orders for futures, options, and swaps, and can also handle customer funds or other assets used to support those transactions. That’s a bigger role than an introducing broker, which can take orders but can’t hold customer funds.

For context, exchanges such as Kalshi operate as Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract markets, while FCMs can act as the middle layer connecting customers to those federally regulated markets. Onyx already has a presence here through Onyx Predictions, which operates as an NFA-registered introducing broker; an FCM application could let it bring more of that workflow in-house.

Other sports-prediction companies have explored different paths into the same space: ProphetX and Novig sought designation as designated contract markets, while Betr acquired an NFA-registered introducing broker in May.